What is the UK's most dangerous dog?

I read an article a few years ago, which stated that the most dangerous breed of dog (based on injuries caused) in the UK was the humble Labrador.  A surprising claim at first, yes?  But if you look at the number of Labradors in the UK, the statistic becomes a logical conclusion.


In the same vein, a recent Populus opinion poll of 100 Lab/Con marginal seats has shown that the two parties are neck and neck.  But is this statistic as reliable as you might think?


If you look at the "small-print" details of the poll, you will read the following:

"Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,500 adults aged over 18 by telephone between March 5 and 7 in 100 Labour-held constituencies where the Tories are second, those ranked 50 to 149 in descending order of marginality."

So if you do the maths, it suggests that only 15 people in each constituency has been asked, which seems like an extraordinarily low number in order to get a reliable figure.

As well as this, the "marginal" constituencies chosen seem to be a bit odd.  What's wrong with the most marginal constituencies?  The first 50?  As well as that, if you look at a list of Conservative target seats with the Liberal-held seats taken out, these 100 seats are actually between 67 and 195 on the Conservative list; with a Uniform National Swing of between 4.1% and 10.3% required for the Conservatives to take the seats in question.

Also, in skipping the first 50 target seats, Populus have discounted 38 (yes, that's right, thirty-eight) seats in which the Conservatives trail by less than two percent.

Now is it just me, or does a required swing of more than 10% suggest that the seat isn't really marginal in the first place?  Especially when the Conservatives came third or lower in nine of these seats last time round.

Of course, the media have been quick to jump on this result and are proclaiming that this shows that if the Conservatives cannot even win the vital "battleground seats" then they have no chance of getting a majority and forming a Government.

To them, I issue this challenge:

Commission a new opinion poll, surveying 100 people in each of the 100 top Conservative target seats (Lab/Con and Lib/Con) and then come back to the public with your findings.