An important session for the Coalition

Today, the House of Commons will return from its summer recess and, arguably, will move into what could prove to be a make-or-break session for the Coalition government.  So what lies in store for the fledgling Coalition in the weeks and months ahead?



Whilst the months between the General Election and the beginning of the summer recess could be described by some as an early test of the strength of the Coalition; the 'scandal' surrounding David Laws and the errors made by Michael Gove being two such tests.  The events of the coming months could well make the 'troubles' of the previous four months pale into insignificance.

There is already a massive test of the Coalition's strength lined up for this evening, when Nick Clegg will present a bill allowing a referendum next May on adopting the Alternative Vote system of voting.  It appears that Labour will be voting against this proposal, and there are also rumblings of a back-bench rebellion amongst the Tory MPs.  A rebellion that the whips are working hard to squash, according to this morning's Financial Times, with David Cameron anxious to ensure that the Government avoids its first defeat in the House at so early a stage.

The knives are already out for the Coalition

With the new Government a mere three months old, a defeat so early in the term could well spell trouble for the Coalition; serving to show discontent within the Government and providing the opposition with ammunition to bring to bear against the Prime Minister.  As well as this, given the fact that the 55% threshold has now been scrapped, coupled with the fact that a number of Liberal Democrat MPs are vocally against the coalition with the Conservatives, it could provide the perfect setting for the first vote of no confidence in a government since the last days of Margaret Thatcher in 1990.

Margaret Thatcher attacks the last 'Vote of No Confidence' in 1990

The other big test of the Government will come in just over a month's time, when George Osborne will announce the results of the spending review, which is likely to announce large cuts to many sections of government (up to 40% according to reports this morning).

Given the wave of opposition that these prospective (nothing has been announced yet!) cuts is already bringing about, insensitive blanket cuts could turn large sections of the population against the new government.  Trades Unions are already vocalising about an 'Autumn of Discontent', and any public backlash against the cuts could well cause serious trouble for the government.

If the coming months are not handled correctly, it is not unreasonable to suggest that we may already find ourselves under the control of a new government come this time next year.

It is without a doubt that the electorate is faced with a bitter pill to swallow.  It is now down to the government to make sure that the electorate understands and accepts that the bitter medicine that will be handed out is ultimately for their own good.