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Sunday, 28 February 2010
What David Cameron must do today
Today David Cameron will give his keynote speech at the Conservative party's Spring Forum. This will be his last chance to address the party in such a way before the General Election. Given the recent slump by the Conservatives in the polls, what must Cameron do to get the campaign back on track?
1. A simple, no-nonsense speech
Cameron will have to be at his oratory best today, evoking the spirit of his speech to the Party Conference in 2007 (highlights here) in which he spoke for over an hour with hardly any notes. The situation today is much the same, and the speech should be too. He should lay down what a vote for the Conservative party will mean; for the economy, for the NHS, for families, for everyone.
2. Stick to the issues
Now is not the time for personal attacks on Brown or Labour (in my opinion, the Conservatives should avoid them at all costs anyway). Cameron should lay down a stark and clear choice, pinpointing Labour's policy failings and broken promises, and the danger of another five years of Brown; whilst making sure he manages to present the Party as a credible alternative.
3. Take the fight to Brown
If Gordon Brown doesn't call an election by Monday, he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to Buckingham Palace. The signs are clear; Gordon Brown is a man on borrowed time, and he knows it. Cameron needs to prove to Brown, and the Country, that the Conservatives are ready to fight an election whenever the Prime Minister wishes to call it. Cameron must throw down the gauntlet and put the ball firmly in the PM's court.
4. A five point plan
One of the main problems facing the Conservatives is that a large number of the general public would struggle to name any of their policies. Today is Cameron's best chance to change that. He should, however, avoid the risk of saying too much. Quality, not quantity. Simply put, he should pick out the five or six best policies, choosing something for everyone, and ram them home.
5. Prove we are ready for Government
The Conservatives will go into this election (if you listen to the Opposition hype) as the inexperienced alternative. Labour will play strong on the fact that they will claim to have the benefit of 13 years of experience behind them. Cameron must use this speech to direct some of the focus onto his Shadow Cabinet; ensuring the public know who they are, and why they are a safer choice then Brown's yes-men.
There's no beating about the bush, today is make-or-break for the Conservative party. A strong, convincing performance by Cameron today will give the party a massive boost; whereas anything less than 100% will play right into Labour's hands.
More 2007 please, Dave!
1. A simple, no-nonsense speech
Cameron will have to be at his oratory best today, evoking the spirit of his speech to the Party Conference in 2007 (highlights here) in which he spoke for over an hour with hardly any notes. The situation today is much the same, and the speech should be too. He should lay down what a vote for the Conservative party will mean; for the economy, for the NHS, for families, for everyone.
2. Stick to the issues
Now is not the time for personal attacks on Brown or Labour (in my opinion, the Conservatives should avoid them at all costs anyway). Cameron should lay down a stark and clear choice, pinpointing Labour's policy failings and broken promises, and the danger of another five years of Brown; whilst making sure he manages to present the Party as a credible alternative.
3. Take the fight to Brown
If Gordon Brown doesn't call an election by Monday, he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to Buckingham Palace. The signs are clear; Gordon Brown is a man on borrowed time, and he knows it. Cameron needs to prove to Brown, and the Country, that the Conservatives are ready to fight an election whenever the Prime Minister wishes to call it. Cameron must throw down the gauntlet and put the ball firmly in the PM's court.
4. A five point plan
One of the main problems facing the Conservatives is that a large number of the general public would struggle to name any of their policies. Today is Cameron's best chance to change that. He should, however, avoid the risk of saying too much. Quality, not quantity. Simply put, he should pick out the five or six best policies, choosing something for everyone, and ram them home.
5. Prove we are ready for Government
The Conservatives will go into this election (if you listen to the Opposition hype) as the inexperienced alternative. Labour will play strong on the fact that they will claim to have the benefit of 13 years of experience behind them. Cameron must use this speech to direct some of the focus onto his Shadow Cabinet; ensuring the public know who they are, and why they are a safer choice then Brown's yes-men.
There's no beating about the bush, today is make-or-break for the Conservative party. A strong, convincing performance by Cameron today will give the party a massive boost; whereas anything less than 100% will play right into Labour's hands.
More 2007 please, Dave!
Saturday, 27 February 2010
Alistair Darling: a dangerous dead man walking?
Another of the key headlines in the last week centred around Alistair Darling's allegation that the Prime Minister and his spin doctors had "unleashed the hounds of hell" upon him. What does this mean for his future and, more importantly, Gordon Brown?
Writing for the Telegraph, Jeff Randall provides a useful and succinct summary of the Chancellor's usual style:
Writing for the Telegraph, Jeff Randall provides a useful and succinct summary of the Chancellor's usual style:
"The Chancellor is an Aberdeen-educated lawyer. He has no track record of indulging in flamboyant or exaggerated language. Indeed, until this week, critics had mocked his ability to make Budget speeches sound only marginally more compelling than an Ikea instruction list."
So with these uncharacteristic remarks, Darling has made two things very clear:
- His position within the Cabinet has been made untenable.
- He has no intention of going quietly, rather more of bringing down those around him; much like Jimmy Cagney in the 1949 film White Heat.
Given the timing of these remarks, Darling has put himself in a unique position. He is unsackable before a General Election (to fire him now would be pure madness on Brown's part), yet he is unemployable in a new Labour government; supported by Gordon Brown's refusal, this morning, to confirm or deny whether Darling will continue as Chancellor should Labour win the upcoming election.
So given the consequences for the Chancellor, what will this now mean for the Prime Minister?
It is my belief that with these comments the Prime Minister has lost a member of the Cabinet who will willingly do his bidding. It is highly likely now, that Darling will grind out his last few months in the job doing not what Gordon tells him, rather doing what he believes is best for the country.
If this is the case, then the Prime Minister has a very big dilemma on his hands, which can be summed up in two words: The Budget.
Being somewhat of a loose cannon on deck, can Darling now be relied upon to deliver the kind of budget that Brown wants? That is; a budget in line with Brown's much peddled mantra that we must "spend our way out of the recession". If Brown decides to take this risk, he may find himself confronted with a much more honest, hard-hitting budget, which will do nothing to restore voter confidence in an already wounded Labour party; let alone give the voters any incentives to vote Labour.
Brown's decision is simple. Does he call a March election, thus avoiding having to make a budget? Or does he bide his time, hoping beyond hope that Darling doesn't decide to twist the knife that he has already thrust deep into the PM's back?
Friday, 26 February 2010
A big weekend for Westminster (and the UK)?
Rumblings are getting louder within the blogosphere of there being a very high possibility that Gordon Brown may choose this weekend to pluck up the courage to go to Buckingham Palace and call a General Election. Guido Fawkes cites a BBC source in stating that BBC News and Politics teams have been put on "red alert" for an impending election call and have been told not to go away over the weekend.
Taking a neutral point of view for a moment, this would look to be the best course of action for the Government for a couple of reasons:
The Budget
Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report back in late 2009 posed an awful lot of questions for the politically-inclined. He made an awful lot of offers to the electorate whilst being very quiet on how all these extra provisions would be paid for.
Given the amount of column inches, and time at PMQs that has been devoted to the issue of "The Deficit", it is highly likely that whoever forms the next Government will have to tighten the nation's collective belt considerably. With this in mind, both Labour and the Conservatives should know that they will have to make some unpopular decisions when it comes to the next budget.
If Brown goes to The Palace this weekend and announces a shortest-possible campaign of three weeks, it would mean a General Election on Thursday 25th March; comfortably within the twelve-month lifespan of the 2009 Budget, meaning that the first that the electorate would hear about how they would pay for all these Labour promises would be after giving them a mandate for a further five years.
A Lucky Escape
As mentioned in a previous post, Brown can count himself extremely lucky to have weathered the storm of the bullying accusations and to have actually come out of it better than he went in. Given this miraculous outcome for him and his Party, he may seek to capitalise on his new-found "strongman" image by calling an election as soon as possible.
The Opinion Polls
With the Conservative lead down to just five points - which if duplicated in the real polls would rob the Tories of victory - Brown may see this as now-or-never time. I am sure that if you had offered Brown a five-point Conservative lead just twelve months ago, he would have called an election there and then. Will Brown have the balls to do it this time?
Update: 1634hrs GMT - Ladbrokes suspend betting on a March General Election...
Taking a neutral point of view for a moment, this would look to be the best course of action for the Government for a couple of reasons:
The Budget
Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report back in late 2009 posed an awful lot of questions for the politically-inclined. He made an awful lot of offers to the electorate whilst being very quiet on how all these extra provisions would be paid for.
Given the amount of column inches, and time at PMQs that has been devoted to the issue of "The Deficit", it is highly likely that whoever forms the next Government will have to tighten the nation's collective belt considerably. With this in mind, both Labour and the Conservatives should know that they will have to make some unpopular decisions when it comes to the next budget.
If Brown goes to The Palace this weekend and announces a shortest-possible campaign of three weeks, it would mean a General Election on Thursday 25th March; comfortably within the twelve-month lifespan of the 2009 Budget, meaning that the first that the electorate would hear about how they would pay for all these Labour promises would be after giving them a mandate for a further five years.
A Lucky Escape
As mentioned in a previous post, Brown can count himself extremely lucky to have weathered the storm of the bullying accusations and to have actually come out of it better than he went in. Given this miraculous outcome for him and his Party, he may seek to capitalise on his new-found "strongman" image by calling an election as soon as possible.
The Opinion Polls
With the Conservative lead down to just five points - which if duplicated in the real polls would rob the Tories of victory - Brown may see this as now-or-never time. I am sure that if you had offered Brown a five-point Conservative lead just twelve months ago, he would have called an election there and then. Will Brown have the balls to do it this time?
Update: 1634hrs GMT - Ladbrokes suspend betting on a March General Election...
A week in review
The politics pages in this weeks newspapers have been filled with pretty much one thing: the allegations of bullying made by Andrew Rawnsley against Gordon Brown. Perhaps such allegations aren't particularly shocking given the nature of previous stories about our esteemed Prime Minister, which have accused him of throwing not only mobile phones, but laser printers too. See here
Most shocking of all, in my opinion, is how the Labour leader appears to have emerged unscathed by the whole affair. Not only that, but in the last seven days Labour have reduced the Conservative Party's lead in opinion polls to (in comparison to a meaty 18 point lead just twelve months ago) a mere five points.
There are those in the media who suggest that such accusations have actually worked in Mr. Brown's favour, stating that such stories create an image of a strong and powerful leader with human faults, who has the best interests of the country at heart. No, Fleet Street, I think you will find that the accurate image is that of an authoritarian bully.
In concluding this short comment, I shall ask three questions:
1) If these allegations are as unfounded, as Mr. Brown and his Party have gone to great lengths to assure us, why aren't the massed lawyers of the Labour Party currently breaking down Mr. Rawnsley's door?
2) Given the apparent boost to Mr. Brown's image that these accusations have resulted in, is it too far removed to think that, maybe, this might all be a tremendous piece of PR from those at Millbank?
3) What does Brown actually have to do to lose public trust in him?
Most shocking of all, in my opinion, is how the Labour leader appears to have emerged unscathed by the whole affair. Not only that, but in the last seven days Labour have reduced the Conservative Party's lead in opinion polls to (in comparison to a meaty 18 point lead just twelve months ago) a mere five points.
There are those in the media who suggest that such accusations have actually worked in Mr. Brown's favour, stating that such stories create an image of a strong and powerful leader with human faults, who has the best interests of the country at heart. No, Fleet Street, I think you will find that the accurate image is that of an authoritarian bully.
In concluding this short comment, I shall ask three questions:
1) If these allegations are as unfounded, as Mr. Brown and his Party have gone to great lengths to assure us, why aren't the massed lawyers of the Labour Party currently breaking down Mr. Rawnsley's door?
2) Given the apparent boost to Mr. Brown's image that these accusations have resulted in, is it too far removed to think that, maybe, this might all be a tremendous piece of PR from those at Millbank?
3) What does Brown actually have to do to lose public trust in him?
First things first. Welcome!
So, I've taken the plunge and decided to take the next step in political activism; starting a blog. Here you'll find my thoughts and comments on all sorts of political goings-on; from election campaigns to new legislation and affairs of the House.
Feel free to add your own thoughts and opinions, especially if you happen to disagree with me. Impassioned debate really is one of the finer things in life.
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